October 24, 2020

The psychological manifestation of survivor’s bias effect in life

During World War II, many powerful fighters appeared in various countries. As many fighters crashed during the war and caused great losses to the country, all countries sent a large number of experts to study how to upgrade the fighters. The combat effectiveness of the fighter can reduce the combat loss rate of the fighter.

At first, after studying the fighters damaged in the war, the experts proposed to reinforce the damaged parts of the fighters to ensure the fighter’s ability to resist the next time it was used. However, after research, it was found that the combat damage rate of fighter jets did not change as a result.

At this time, the maintenance workers who participated on the side put forward different opinions. He believed that the battle damage rate did not change because the reinforced parts themselves were not fatal injuries. The reason why these fighters could fly back smoothly was because of insufficient damage to these parts. In order to affect the normal use of fighters, only those where there is no damage are where the fighters are fatal, because those fighters that have been fatally injured can never fly back.

What is the survivor bias effect is a common logical fallacy, which means that you can only see the results produced after a certain screening, without being aware of the screening process, and therefore ignoring the key information.

Just like the above example, we tend to focus only on the scars on the fighters that flew back, without realizing that the focus of these scars is that these fighters flew back, and we actually need to study those fighters that can’t fly back.

Psychological counseling

I often feel that I have no way to reach the deep heart of a completely depressed client. The first thing I do is not to help them dispel depression but to express their depression.

If a person with depression is willing to open up with you, you may be curious to ask him what makes him depressed. In your opinion, he may have a superior life, a decent job, a good education, a good family, and Good temper.

There are even some people who seem to you to be confident, love to laugh, and are the same as those around you, but they may really be suffering from depression.

In recent years, the word depression has been constantly being consumed. I strongly disagree, but these self-media have more or less helped them face their symptoms and help them express their thoughts. This is for them It is very helpful again.

If you talk to a visitor about his depression experience, you may think that what he experienced is not a big deal, but you have to know that what he expressed is the part that has been internalized and modified by him. There are There are too many things that cannot be described in words, such as how you feel.

But once a visitor with depressive symptoms expresses his depression to you, it is likely that his symptoms have eased, and he is already a survivor of this war.

Even if he made it clear that his wounds were only bullet holes on the fighters that flew back, and those depression complexes that were still struggling and painful were shot and shot at the fatal wound.

But unfortunately, there are still many people who don’t know that they can get help in the process of psychological counseling and how to ask for help. This is also the direction we need to work hard on.

But psychological counseling is always a process that requires the joint efforts of both parties. You need to ask for help before I can help you. So if you need help, please let me know.

Success and failure

Success studies is also a very popular selling point recently. What is success studies is probably about why I or a celebrity you know is so successful. On the contrary, failure studies are about why I or that person failed. A learning.

It sounds very reasonable, isn’t it right to sum up experience and reach the pinnacle of life? Well, let’s not talk about the success study first, let’s talk about the failure study first. If a person fails to be known by the public, is that person a failure?

There was a hot search on the news some time ago. Zhou, who stole the battery car in Guangxi, was released from prison and got a 2 million contract from a live broadcast platform. If we change the title and become the story of Guangxi Zhou who earned two million through his own efforts, would it become an inspirational story? Then success scholars began to study how Zhou was successful, and then they could write that stealing the battery car would earn two million.

Recently, the anchors are very popular. The Internet has been blowing in waves. Short videos and live broadcasts have emerged one after another. They used to be celebrities and are now Internet celebrities. They are all successful people who look glamorous and have countless fans and assets.

So a large number of people began to imitate how to live broadcast, and began to study how to become an Internet celebrity. But I hope those friends who dream of becoming Internet celebrities think about it first. What we see is just the glamour at the top of the pyramid, and most people are hovering at the bottom of the pyramid. Any occupation with a low threshold and high income will form huge competition because of its low threshold.

Because of our incomplete information acquisition, we often can only see the most shining part, and those who are realistic and struggling at the bottom do not understand it at all. This is the survivor bias.

marketing

Take the milk tea shops that can be seen everywhere in our streets. Do milk tea shops really make money? The answer is not necessarily. Many people opened milk tea shops and saw that the price of 341 cups of Hey Tea was still overcrowded, but they did not see the struggling of other brands.

I asked a business tycoon how to make money by opening milk tea. He said that if you spend a lot of money, you can make money when you think you are surrounded by this milk tea shop.

But in fact, most of us don’t have the funds and ability to achieve this, so ordinary people may lose money to open a milk tea shop, but there are still many people who are just about to move.

Business is not something that can be successful with a single shot. We need to have a lot of practice in the early stage. We must understand the people who are at the top of the pyramid and are seen by people. We must also understand the people at the bottom of the pyramid who are struggling to survive.

We often suggest that if you want to open a store, first go to your peers to work for a year, to understand his operating mode, to understand his operating conditions, and then come back and think carefully.

Because our access to information is limited, what we see is only a part of the successful people, but those who give up halfway are often drowned in the crowd.

Of course, in life, we will inevitably be blinded by the survivor bias effect, so we need to continuously obtain and analyze information to ensure that we obtain the comprehensive information.